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美国对华经济战的2.0版本,无异于杀敌一千自损三千_我的网站

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拜登政府近日宣布了对华新一轮增税措施,涉及金额超过100亿美元,主要针对七种产品,其中包括新能源车、锂电池、芯片等新兴生产力领域。    As India disapproved of unilateral sanctions against Russia, the US and Europe have unleashed an information warfare to pressure the Indian government on global platforms, observe Indian experts.,Sandeep Tripathi, the Forum for Global Studies founder, reckoned that Western media reports and opinion pieces are biased.,"It is the part of information warfare that is being unleashed by the Western Media, particularly on India's stand on the Russia-Ukraine conflict," Tripathi said.,British daily The Guardian published an unsubstantiated report accusing India of serving as a backdoor for Russian oil to supply the European market. It was published hours before Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was about to participate G-7 summit in Germany.,"New Delhi has sidelined all the tactical pressure since the ongoing [Ukraine crisis] at every platform, i.e., United Nations Security Council, Quad, etc. A divided West is not in a position to pressure a country like India, which enjoys decisional autonomy," Tripathi underlined.,Several Western analysts blasted India for maintaining ties with Russia, citing around 10-fold jump in oil import from Russia since March this year. India has purchased over $3.2 billion of Russian oil at a discounted price.,However, the monthly export-import data published by India's Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas refuted the reports, indicating monthly crude oil purchases remain at the pre-conflict level.,"India doesn't believe in any kind of war funding. India's relationship with Russia is based on mutual trust and compatibility," Tripathi added.,Prime Minister Narendra Modi has categorically conveyed to G-7 leaders that India would continue to do what it thinks is best in the interest of its energy security.,Yogendra Kapoor, a Delhi-based senior economist, said the West has a "diplomatic issue with India's special and reciprocal relationship with Russia".,Watch: White House NSC Spox Gives Totally Different Answers on China, India Oil Imports From Russia22 June, 20:03 GMT,On Monday, India's Register of Shipping, one of the world's top classification companies, rebuffed a report published by Reuters that blamed it for providing safety certification to dozens of ships managed by top Russian shipping group Sovcomflot.,Reuters accused Indian Register of Shipping of enabling oil exports to India and elsewhere by providing a safety net after Western certifiers withdrew their services in response to US-led sanctions against Moscow.,"The vessels are operated by various entities in Dubai and in other parts of the world. None of the companies which own the ships are registered in Russia," the press statement read.,The Indian organization has also criticized Reuters for mentioning "international" and "global" sanctions in its report, saying the "vast majority of countries around the world" have not sanctioned Russia.,"As far as we are aware there are no United Nations-mandated sanctions on Russia. These descriptions, in fact, refer to sanctions issued by the United States of America and some European countries," it added.,On the Ukraine crisis, India reiterated its long-standing position on Monday, highlighting dialogue and diplomacy between the parties.,Want to know more? Check out our Koo & Telegram accounts!,Koo: https://www.kooapp.com/profile/sputniknews,Sputnik India: https://t.me/sputniknewsindia。部分国际经济学家将此举措视为美国对华经济战的2.0版本。在特朗普时代,特朗普发动的第一轮对华关税战持续升级,涉及3000亿美元的中国商品,最高加征关税幅度达到25%。而如今,拜登政府的关税举措更为激进,例如对中国电动车的关税税率甚至高达100%,这几乎达到了疯狂的地步。
经过过去七年的历练,中国方面早已对底线思维进行了深入预估。若不幸遭遇美国毫无理性的打击,我们应采取何种应对措施成为关键议题。

B | 内部循环足以支撑我们度过相当长的一段时期。此外,值得注意的是,美国在某些领域如新三样的市场份额并不显著,反而在欧洲以及我们正在开拓的一带一路和金砖国家集团等市场中表现更为强劲。因此,若我们仅从当前中美贸易战2.0的角度去观察,可能会忽略更为重要的方面。实际上,当前最重要的是货币战与金融战,而贸易战更像是其掩护下的烟雾。面对高额关税,中国大陆已明确表态,要求美国及时停止此类行为,而不仅仅是表达反对或采取其他措施。

在一周内,一项高效的反制措施或许会产生。在此过程中,还需准备应对“货币战争”和“金融战争”。当前,事件在日本已展开,日元汇率暴跌,日本陷入困境。

C | 在这种背景下,“中、日、韩”三国需重新思考应对策略。美国方面,只是在虚张声势,加征关税并无新意。最终,这种压迫手段反而促使中国在某些领域的新兴产业获得发展,逐步自力更生,开拓其他市场。因此,中美贸易摩擦的重要性逐渐降低。如同美元在国际金融收支、结算及储备货币占比方面,已呈现长期下滑趋势。问题的关键在于,这不是一朝一夕就能看到改变的,但长期趋势明显,可以聚焦于2035年和2049年的持久战。

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实际上,美国的做法导致其最大的贸易伙伴中国与之疏离,进而疏离美国市场,此举无疑使美国自身成为受害者。中国有能力寻找其他市场,如“一带一路”倡议所涵盖的地区,这些市场未来的发展潜力远超过现有范围。此外,若美国选择封杀中国的电动车产业,其未来的新能源汽车行业将面临巨大挑战。预计在2049年,美国可能仍在使用燃油车,电动车产业发展受到严重阻碍,这无疑对美国是一个巨大的打击。

E | 当前,电动车所使用的锂电池在原料及系统方面,中国拥有大量掌控权,美国无法完全摆脱对中国的依赖。

F | 因此,美国此次的举措不仅未能有效打击中国,反而可能对自身造成更大的损害,可谓是杀敌一千自损三千,自食其果。最后,此举还将对全球经济格局产生深远影响,特别是在“金融战”方面,可能引发一系列连锁反应和不确定性。

美国当前处境颇显困境,可用的策略已寥寥无几。在诸多可选之策中,最严峻的一项便是触发地区军事冲突。这种冲突可能出现在亚洲周边,如朝鲜半岛,或通过菲律宾引发局部动荡,甚至最终导致台海局势紧张。

G | 然而,这一设想尚存变数,美国最后的战略抉择仍难以预测。

H | 考虑到今年为大选年,预计美国决策者将避免引发重大意外。然而,当前俄乌冲突及中东战场仍令美国疲于应对。

在亚洲地区,目前并未面临显著的即时危机。然而,截至今年11月,特朗普与拜登之间的总统大选对决将揭晓结果。无论是拜登成功连任,还是特朗普重返白宫,都将对美国乃至全球政治格局产生深远影响。尤其值得关注的是,若特朗普再次执政,中美贸易关系是否将陷入新一轮的紧张态势。在大选期间,特朗普曾表示若再当选,将对中国国所有商品加征60%的关税。至于此言论是仅为竞选口号,还是真实意图,仍有待观察。

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美国是一个颇为独特的国家,在选举过程中,许多选民首先关注的是投票环节。据统计,大约60%的选民参与投票,而剩余的选民则呈现出大致50%、50%的分布,无论52%、48%或其他比例,两党之间的对抗始终存在,权力争夺永无止境。如此状况,每七年更新一次,这被视为美国制度的致命缺陷。若此问题无法解决,对美国的前景恐不宜过于乐观。从现在到今年底,再到10月份,美国政治的发展态势值得我们高度关注。这不仅关系到美国本身,也影响到中国、香港乃至全球的经济繁荣。

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Published on:20:08:22


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