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Global economy 'dangerously close' to a recession: World Bank_我的网站

一 |     本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开：                    1、伊朗炮弹炸到华尔街，原油短期难结束，美股压力加大；          2、华尔街新潮流：投资AI干不掉的行业（聊聊电网）；          3、军工和海运能走多久，参考特朗普的时间表                    如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙投小虎哥微信miaotou515，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。    Washington, Oct 14 (UNI) The global economy is "dangerously close" to a recession, as inflation remains elevated, interest rates rise, and growing debt burden hits the developing world, World Bank President David Malpass said.



"We've lowered our 2023 growth forecast from 3 per cent to 1.9 per cent for the global growth, that's dangerously close to a world recession," Malpass on Thursday said at a press conference during the IMF and World Bank annual meetings.



"All of the problems that people have taken note of, the inflation problem, the interest rate rises, and the cutoff of capital flow to developing world hit the poor hard," he said, highlighting the buildup of debt for developing countries.



"That's a world recessions could happen under certain circumstances," Malpass said.



In a study published in mid-September, the World Bank warned that as central banks across the world simultaneously hike interest rates in response to inflation, the world may be edging toward a global recession in 2023, with a growth forecast of only 0.5 per cent.



The World Bank chief noted at the press conference that world population growth is estimated at 1.1 per cent per year. "So if you get much slower in terms of world growth, that means people are going backward," Malpass said in response to a question from Xinhua.



Citing a recent World Bank report, Malpass said that Covid-19 pandemic dealt the biggest setback to global poverty-reduction efforts since 1990, pushing about 70 million people into extreme poverty in 2020, and the war in Ukraine threatens to make matters worse.



According to the Poverty and Shared Prosperity Report, global median income declined by 4 per cent in 2020, the first decline since its measurements of median income began in 1990.



"So if we have a world recession now, that would also depress median income, meaning that the people in the lower half of the income scale are going down," Malpass said.



The World Bank chief also noted that he has been concerned about the concentration of capital in the world in the top end of the advanced economies.



"So that's, I think, one of the issues that the world has to deal with to allow capital to flow to new businesses and to developing countries, that would take a change in the direction of fiscal and monetary policies in the advanced economies," said Malpass.



The world is facing very challenging environment from the advanced economies, and that has serious implications, dangers for the developing countries, he said. "My deep concern is that these conditions and trends might persist into 2023 and 2024."

UNI/XINHUA PRT。                   新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级以下大家选择听。                   1、伊朗炮弹炸到华尔街，原油短期难结束，美股压力加大          今天中东战火仍然是关注的焦点，而且已经烧到了第二层。

二 | 伊朗的反击力度显然超出了市场预期——它的炮弹不仅炸到了美国在中东的军事基地，还在霍尔木兹海峡击中了英国和美国的三艘油轮，导致这一关键水道实质性瘫痪。霍尔木兹海峡是全球最重要的原油运输通道之一，如今无法通行，这将从底层动摇全球对经济稳定性的信心。                   除此之外，伊朗的部分代理人似乎也开始“复活”：黎巴嫩真主党重新对以色列发动轰炸，使战局更加混乱。因此，到目前为止，我们可以说这已不简单是一次炮火升级，而是直接把炮弹炸进了金融市场，炸到了美国华尔街——打中了美国的软肋。                   今天大家看到，美股期货市场开盘就出现1.5%的大幅下跌。特朗普在过去一年多时间里屡次透露出他的软肋就在金融市场。现在，似乎有人正针对他的“阿喀琉斯之踵”发起攻击。单纯比拼军事实力，伊朗确实会被摁在地上摩擦；但一旦危及美国金融市场、引发股市波动，这就不再是简单的军事得失问题了。

三 | 当前局势正在推高油价至超出市场预期的水平，使美国本就扑朔迷离的通胀前景雪上加霜。                   本文为妙投付费内容，上述仅为摘要，购买本专栏即可解锁完整内容。

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Published on:02:04:53